Cyclone NOUL almost Typhoon

As predicted, Cyclone NOUL will be upgraded to a Typhoon Category 1 today. This might even happen a bit earlier. Central pressure went down from 985 hPa to 976 hPa. Wind speed near the center has increased from 86 km/h to 110 km/h.

Forward speed and direction are still subject to fast changes. Forward speed oscillates between 7 and 15 km/h. The direction of the track changes between south-west and north-west. See the JMA track below:

The picture is assembled from current and past forecast tracks.

NOUL Storm Forecast

The forecasts of the different agencies lie near to each other. The reason is: there are no strong high and low pressure areas over continental China. These pressure systems, even far from the Philippines, have a determinant influence on the tracks of cyclones over the Philippine Sea.
Pressure differences between low and high are only 8 hPa, between 1004 (low) and 1012 (high). Far north, over Mongolia, is a very strong High Pressure Area (HPA) with 1032 hPa. If this high pressure moves quickly southwards without decreasing, future Typhoon NOUL may be pushed on a more southern track.

NOUL Storm data:

 Nearly real-time storm information

[GARD]