Cyclone NOUL almost Typhoon

Tropical Storm NOUL 2015-05-06

As predicted, Cyclone NOUL will be upgraded to a Typhoon Category 1 today. This might even happen a bit earlier. Central pressure went down from 985 hPa to 976 hPa. Wind speed near the center has increased from 86 km/h to 110 km/h.

Forward speed and direction are still subject to fast changes. Forward speed oscillates between 7 and 15 km/h. The direction of the track changes between south-west and north-west. See the JMA track below:

Tropical Storm NOUL 2015-05-06

The picture is assembled from current and past forecast tracks.

NOUL Storm Forecast

Tropical Storm NOUL 2015-05-06

The forecasts of the different agencies lie near to each other. The reason is: there are no strong high and low pressure areas over continental China. These pressure systems, even far from the Philippines, have a determinant influence on the tracks of cyclones over the Philippine Sea.
Pressure differences between low and high are only 8 hPa, between 1004 (low) and 1012 (high). Far north, over Mongolia, is a very strong High Pressure Area (HPA) with 1032 hPa. If this high pressure moves quickly southwards without decreasing, future Typhoon NOUL may be pushed on a more southern track.

Tropical Storm NOUL 2015-05-06

NOUL Storm data:

Name (INTL. / local): NOUL / —
Class: Tropical Storm
Time/Date of observation: 05:00 AM on May 05, 2015
Location of Center: 9.2º North 137.9º East
Moving Direction and Speed: South-West @ 10 km/h
Moving towards: Philippine Islands
Distance from the Philippines: 1,305 km E of Surigao
Estimated Date / Time of Landfall: n/a
Max. Wind Speed near Center: 110 km/h
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 km/h
Minimum Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Diameter: 600 km
24h Rainfall near Center: 100 – 500 mm
Max. Wave Height: 8 – 10 m
Here you find how to read and understand this data 

 Nearly real-time storm information

[GARD]

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