Tropical Storm HAGUPIT keeps south

Hagupit Landfall

Tropical Storm HAGUPIT keeps south and maintains its western movement. The forward speed is still fast with 35 km/h. Meteorological agencies now expect HAGUPIT to become a Typhoon Cat.4

Hagupit Landfall

Only the US-Navy (violet) and the Koreans (olive) predict a northern track. All other agencies predict landfall either in northern Surigao or southern Leyte. Multi Agency forecast by Michael Padua.

Silent Gardens trusts in JMA’s forecasts

We receive our weather data from Tokyo and Chiba. Some data arrives every 30 minutes, other data comes in 1 hour and 3 hour intervals. This fast update allows us to analyze the dynamic of the weather. The US Navy (JTWC) also provides good fercast data, but they do it in a strict 6 hours rhythm. Please find below the newest JMA forecast from 5:00 p.m. (PST)

TS Hagupit JMA forecast 12/02 at 5.00 p.m.

The yellow circle indicates the zone with wind speeds of at least 30 kts = 55 km/h. The red line delimits the storm warning zone. The white circles indicate the probability zone in which the storm can move. The line connecting the centers of these circles is the track forecast. The actual storm will not follow this line but stay within the white circles.

We now start to put all significant storm data as usual in a table. This table allows you to compare past and current development.

HAGUPIT/(Ruby)* Storm data:

Name (INTL. / local): HAGUPIT / (Ruby)*
Class: Tropical Storm
Time/Date of observation: 05:00 PM on December 02, 2014
Location of Center: 6.2º North 144.2º East
Moving Direction and Speed: West @ 35 km/h
Moving towards: Yap
Distance from the Philippines: 2080 km SE of Surigao
Estimated Date / Time of Landfall: n/a
Max. Wind Speed near Center: 83 km/h
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 km/h
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Diameter: 330 km
24h Rainfall near Center: n/a
Max. Wave Height: 7 – 9 m
Here you find how to read and understand this data 

* The local name Ruby has not yet been assigned but is next on the list

Next update tomorrow morning after breakfast!

Nearly real-time storm information

[GARD]

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