Typhoon BOPHA/Pablo approaches Northern Luzon

Typhoon BOPHA/Pablo is approaching northern Luzon. A final track cannot yet be seen. There are still too many parameters open for the final track. The typhoon might turn westwards still off-shore, but it might also hit northern Luzon.

People living in Ilocos Region down to La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, and Zambales are warned that the typhoon might make landfall in their region.

The big problems of current forecasts are the sea-surface temperatures and the influence of the cool Amihan air-stream. The last 2 days proved that the water up north is still too warm and that Amihan does not cool down the air.

Friends in San Juan (La Union) reported an hour ago heavily covered skies, but no wind and no rain. Let’s hope! We keep them informed.

The multi-agency forecast gets near to northern Luzon. Will it be Illocos Norte? Will it be La Union? At this moment everything depends on the famous butterfly in California. The slightest atmospheric disturbance may move the typhoon east, or south.

JMA is optimistic at this very moment. But their 270° angle just off the coast of Ilocos Norte does not match our knowledge of typhoon behavior. Let’s hope, the Japanese are right.

Storm data:

Name (INTL. / local):	BOPHA/Pablo
Class:	Typhoon Category 2
Time/Date of observation:	06:00 PM on December 08, 2012
Location of Center:	17.6.3º North 118.6º East
Moving Direction and Speed:	ENE @ 20 km/h = 12.0 mph
Moving towards:	San Fernando City
Distance from the Philippines:	180 km from Vigan City
Estimated Date / Time of Landfall:	??? (probably no landfall in the Philippines)
Max. Wind Speed near Center:	175 km/h
Peak Wind Gusts:	215 km/h
Minimum Central Pressure:	952 hPa
Diameter:	445 km
24h Rainfall near Center:	500 mm this is extreme
Max. Wave Height:	13 m = 42 ft
Here you find how to read and understand this data

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