Typhoon BOPHA/Pablo drives forecasters crazy – short update

Typhoon BOPHA/Pablo is approaching northern Luzon. A final track cannot yet be seen. Track forecasts go from crossing Ilocos Norte to a pass-by in La Union. 

People living in Ilocos Region down to La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, and Zambales are warned that the typhoon might make landfall in their region.

It seems that this typhoon challenges all mathematical atmospheric models. During the past 24 hours nearly all forecast tracks were wrong or at least 100 miles off the real track.

Without useful data such as sea-surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction and air temperature and local relative humidity we cannot say where the typhoon will move to.

My own humble opinion is that Typhoon BOPHA/Pablo will cross over extreme northern Luzon and then vanish north-east of the Philippines. 

This is not a scientific forecast but rather an estimation based on the feeling in my belly and some years of weather observation in the Philippines.

We’ll inform you again early tomorrow morning. Meanwhile we recommend to have a look at our hourly, but unattended weather update. 

Current weather is here Link

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