HAGUPIT/Ruby – Samar again


Super Typhoon HAGUPIT/Ruby will hit Samar again – this is now sure. JMA forecasts rather the southeastern shores and JTWC predicts the center of the typhoon going through the northeastern parts.

After having hit Samar late Saturday night, the forecast tracks still split. JTWC sees the typhoon roaring up all Bicol towards Manila. JMA maintains the western direction and predicts the typhoon to follow the north coast of Panay from Roxas to Boracay.

Here in Camiguin it is the same uncomfortable feeling we had a year ago when HAIYAN/Yolanda first menaced the south and the destroyed Samar. We always get prepared and te we can do nothing than observe how the storm hits our northern neighbors. I detest this feeling of powerlessness.

The Multi-Agency Tracks

Weather 2014-12-05 Multi-1
JTWC (US Navy) is the violet, most northern track. At the southern end are Korea (olive), Taiwan (green) and Japan (orange).

The JMA track forecast

Weather 2014-12-05 JMA-1

 Update 09:00 a.m. JMA moves more north

The typhoon slows down its forward movement to 15 km/h. It also gets a bit weaker. The central pressure came up from 905 hPa to now 925 hPa. The storm is still extremely violent!

 Weather 2014-12-05 JMA-2

The next 6 to 12 hours will be determining of the exact location where the center of Super Typhoon HAGUPIT/Ruby will hit Samar. If you have read our earlier updates, you may remember that the track of the typhoon is remotely controlled by the High Pressure Area (HPA) over southern China. The series of HPAs is still flowing south, but the southernmost HPA has weakened from 1042 hPa to 1032 hPa. This leaves the typhoon a chance to move more north. The isobar map is here.

Super Typhoon HAGUPIT/Ruby Storm data

Name (INTL. / local): HAGUPIT/Ruby
Class: Super Typhoon Cat.5
Time/Date of observation: 09:00 AM on December 5, 2014
Location of Center: 11.7º North 139.8º East
Moving Direction and Speed: West – Northwest @ 15 km/h
Moving towards: Samar
Distance from the Philippines: 490 km East of Borongan
Estimated Date / Time of Landfall: 20:00 – 24:00 Saturday evening
Max. Wind Speed near Center: 250 km/h
Peak Wind Gusts: 305 km/h
Minimum Central Pressure: 925 hPa
Diameter: 1000 km
24h Rainfall near Center: 150 – 500 mm
Max. Wave Height: 10 – 15 m
Here you find how to read and understand this data

Next update maybe at noon, maybe in the evening.

Almost real-time storm information


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