Cyclone KOPPU/Lando – full of surprises

Bye bye Lando

Cyclone KOPPU/Lando had been and still is full of surprises. First the good news – the storm is continuously weakening and it still stays off the coasts of northern Luzon. There are still strong winds over northern Luzon, but rainfall has much decreased.

The Surprises

Already before having made landfall near Baler, Aurora, all meteorological agencies predicted that the cyclone will almost immediately move north crossing straight over de Cordillera.  But KOPPU/Lando crossed over central Luzon, weakened to a Cat.2 Typhoon and went out in the sea near San Fernando, La Union. During all day yesterday, forecasters expected the storm coming back over Luzon. But the cyclone moved alongside northern Luzon’s west coast.

A second surprise has been the forward speed. All agencies expected the storm to move very slowly at some 3 to 10 km/h. Fortunately Cyclone KOPPU/Lando accelerated  and moved at 15 to 20 km/h. Satellite photos also showed that the strongest rainfalls happened over the sea. Update 12:45 p.m. The storm has again slowed down and is almost stationary!

The 3rd positive surprise are the rainfalls. Initially Cyclone KOPPU/Lando poured big masses of waters over Aurora and Nueva Ecija. But as soon as storm moved out to the sea in the west (that’s diplomatically correct) the main rainfall happened over the open sea.

 Typhoon KOPPU/Lando  Weather 2015-10-20 JMA
 October 18 track forecast  October 20 track forecast


DOST’s Project Noah has been and still is a big help in evaluating rainfall. The Doppler Radars provided almost real-time rainfall maps. The Baler station was damaged or cut from the network as early as 11:30 p.m. on October 17. But Aparri, Subic  and Tagaytay stations continued to provide us with extremely valuable information. Have a look into Project Noah, it is a state of the art tool but simple to handle. This mornings observation show only scattered and very light rainfall over the Mountain Province.

Project Noah Doppler 2015-10-20

PAGASA Storm Signals

Storm Signal #2: winds of 61 to 120 kph within 24 hours

Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra, Batanes, Northern Cagayan including Calayan and Babuyan group of Islands

Storm Signal #1: winds of 30 to 60 kph within 36 hours

La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt.Province, Kalinga, Isabela and the rest of Cagayan

Cyclone KOPPU/Lando Storm data:

Name (INTL. / local): KOPPU/Lando
Class: Tropical Storm
Time/Date of observation: 12:45 PM on October 20, 2015
Location of Center: 19.1° North 120.1° East
Moving Direction and Speed: Northeast, stationary again
Moving towards: Batanes, Taiwan
Distance from the Philippines: Near Ilocos Norte
Estimated Date / Time of Landfall: n/a
Max. Wind Speed near Center: 74 km/h
Peak Wind Gusts: 110 km/h
Minimum Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Diameter: 560 km
24h Rainfall near Center: 100 – 300 mm
Max. Wave Height: n/a
Here you find how to read and understand this data

Nearly real-time storm information

This seems to be our last report on this storm if there are no more surprises!

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