Warning: Tropical Storm 22W is developing quickly

JMA Storm Forecast 2014-12-01

This morning we announced that a new Low Pressure Area is developing. This LPA developed extremely fast during the day and has already been upgraded to a Tropical Storm.

All weather agencies had been too conservative this morning. Everybody expected the Low Pressure Are to develop into a Tropical Depression by tomorrow. Now it has already the strength of a Tropical Storm. This Cyclone is heading towards the Philippines and should reach our islands end of this week. The waters in the Pacific north of the equator are very warm, over 30°C. This will provide the cyclone with plenty of energy. Worse, there seem to be no high atmosphere streams that could disturb the cyclogenesis.

This Tropical Storm is moving at a forward speed of 25 km/h in direction west to northwest. It has a central pressure of  1000 hPa and wind speed near the center is 35-50 kt (55-92 km/h). The storm is expected to increase the forward speed to 30 km/h. The central pressure will constantly decrease by about 2 to 4 hPa in 24 hours.

JMA is still conservative

An extrapolation of these white probability circles makes us think that the cyclone will hit either Samar or Bicol. It is much too early to give a serious advice. We expect to have enough data on Wednesday.

JMA Storm Forecast 2014-12-01

JTWC outlook goes much farther

The US Navy looks much more ahead. Their forecast points much more to north, towards northern Luzon.

JTWC Storm Forecast 2014-12-01

Please don’t panic now. Read the news and listen to the radio and watch TV. Or stay with us  😉

Silent Gardens tries to warn as soon as possible. Only with early warning you can re-book flights or change ferry tickets.

We’ll inform again tomorrow morning about the new Tropical Storm. We wish you a good night.


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